Gay Mayans!

For those of you unfamiliar with FiveThirtyEight it may appear to be just a chart and stats blog but founder Nate Silver uses polling data to project and predict political results (i.e winner of 2008’s presidential election) and sometimes sports.

In wake of Iowa’s recent success with the gay marriage bill,  538 has pulled together some info to project when each state will legalize gay marriage.

He uses the following info:

1. The year in which the amendment was voted upon;
2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives;
3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.

Here are his results:

2009 (now)
Vermont
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Maine
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Nevada*
Washington
Alaska*
New York
Oregon*

2010
California*
Hawaii
Montana*
New Jersey
Colorado*

2011
Wyoming
Delaware
Idaho*
Arizona*

2012
Wisconsin*
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Illinois

2013
Michigan*
Minnesota
Iowa
Ohio*
Utah*
Florida*

2014
New Mexico
North Dakota*
Nebraska*
South Dakota*

2015
Indiana
Virginia*
West Virginia
Kansas*

2016
Missouri*

2018
Texas*

2019
North Carolina
Louisiana*
Georgia*

2020
Kentucky*

2021
South Carolina*
Oklahoma*

2022
Tennessee*
Arkansas*

2023
Alabama*

2024
Mississippi*

According to his chart 50% of the country will vote for Gay Marriage. by 2012…woah dude 2012…eh.

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